UniCredit’s pursuit of a €17 billion Banco BPM bid and its strategic expansion in Commerzbank are entering a pivotal phase this week, with implications rippling across Italy and Germany. As the Italian court weighs its appeal against Rome’s imposed conditions, including a nine-month withdrawal from Russia and a five-year maintenance of BPM’s loan-to-deposit ratio, a ruling is expected by Thursday, setting the tone for consolidation in Italy’s financial landscape.
At the same time, UniCredit has doubled its voting power in Commerzbank to around 20 per cent by converting derivative holdings, with plans to press on to 29 per cent. This shift positions the Milanese bank as the largest private stakeholder in Germany’s second-largest lender – yet Chancellor Merz and Berlin’s finance ministry have pushed back, decrying the tactic as “hostile” and reaffirming their stance against a takeover.
These interlinked developments highlight UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel’s bold M&A strategy, which has garnered both regulatory approvals, from the ECB, German cartel office, and US Fed, and fierce political resistance. Orcel has appealed to Brussels, suggesting that only EU merger rules should govern the BPM transaction, not national “golden powers”. Success at either front could accelerate Europe’s banking consolidation, especially as Italy’s financial landscape remains highly fragmented.
Orcel’s dual push, anchored in shareholder value and strategic growth, confronts a complex European regulatory mosaic. If the court annuls Rome’s conditions, UniCredit might swiftly finalise the Banco BPM takeover. Likewise, a steady climb beyond 30 per cent at Commerzbank could compel a formal offer, though UniCredit shows little interest in that near term.
Investors should watch this week’s rulings closely. A favourable BPM verdict and steady Commerzbank positioning would reaffirm UniCredit’s ambitions, potentially sparking a wave of consolidation reshaping banking across Europe – anchored in synergies, regulatory alignment and clear shareholder returns.
